There’s a global wine shortage coming…or maybe not

Last week, The Atlantic reported that there is a forthcoming global wine shortage. They cited research by Morgan Stanley and had a nice little graph to boot. Even CNN picked it up. As you can imagine, the wine world sort of freaked.

But fear not! Just days later, reports emerged debunking the Morgan Stanley report. The SF Gate and Reuters both cranked out articles claiming just the opposite. The Reuters article that’s linked there explains a lot. Go on, click it. Click that link. If you don’t want to though, here are some telling paragraphs from it:

But if you look closely at the Morgan Stanley report, it starts to look less like a dispassionate analysis of supply and demand dynamics in the wine world, and more like an aggressively-argued attempt to put forward one particular investment thesis as strongly as possible. What’s more, the investment thesis is not, particularly, based on the existence of any present or future wine shortage; it’s simply trying to present the idea that demand for Australian wine exports is likely to rise, and to justify the fact that  a company called Treasury Wine Estates is the bank’s “top Australian consumer pick”. (The report was written by Morgan Stanley Australia.)

To create the first chart, Morgan Stanley just took the second chart, added 300 million cases to the red line, and then — this is pretty cunning — simply deleted 2013 altogether, so that the uptick at the end disappears. (The 300 million number is Morgan Stanley’s estimate of the annual demand for “non-wine uses” of wine.)

If you like charts though, check out that link. It’s pretty good. So it seems that, for now, we’re in the clear. Plenty of wine for all. Clearly I’m still laying down a few bottles either way though. And besides, there’s always whiskey.

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One thought on “There’s a global wine shortage coming…or maybe not

  1. Ken Drover November 3, 2013 / 1:20 am

    …not that I need another excuse to stockpile a few more bottles 🙂

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